Russia - Scores & Statistics

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STATS & SCORES

Over the course of Russia I'm going to evaluate the players across two main factors - challenge performance and tribal council statistics. Using a modified form of sabre metrics devised over at TrueDorkTimes.com, it will give an insight into who's standing out and who is struggling/likeliest target.

You can read up on the premise of this HERE - if you're a stat nerd like myself then this might prove to be an interesting spin on the events that will transpire. There are slight modifications to the formula due to a number of game-changing mechanics that don't apply in this instance but it's pretty close to the one they use over on TDT.

General Rules of Accumulating Data

1. Player stats are reflected of their movements in-game, this does not include those that have attended any form of Redemption as this is considered out-game.

2. Challenge Appearances is the understanding that a player took part in a Reward/Immunity Challenge - as it would be impossible to locate the correct amount of times a player has sat out across the entire cast they are considered attended due to their involvement in the tribe.

3. Players are ranked across three tiers which will not come into play until everybody has attended Tribal Council;

Top Tier - Players who maintain or exceed in two areas, be it a strong Challenge component or Tribal Council success rate alongside Jury Votes (where applicable)

Average Players - Players who have a balance between their Challenge wins, Tribal Council accuracy and Jury Votes (where applicable, but incredibly rare to have in this tier)

Weakest Players - Players more commonly identified as inept due to their inability to vote correctly, poor Challenge performance or are a target for people to throw their votes on. There is a chance of a finalist being ranked in this field but that would be in part to embodying incredibly weak statistics and essentially being dragged to the end.

4. Exile Tundra is not applied to the chart despite being an in-game location, it bears no weight to the overall stats.

5. If a player reaches 0 HP and is evacuated, the VAP chart will be the maximum number of votes potentially cast against them (eg - a tribe of six would give that player five votes)

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Episode One

Nothing special going on in the opening days. Kuban failing to vote as a collective unit have really given us an idea on their method of dealing with Tribal Council and since the Tundra Exile is going to be pivotal in splitting votes, the chances of a unanimous vote seem less likely. That being said, it's no surprise that the bloc of five (Constance, Jessica, Maranda, Whitney and Brady) dominate the top of the list at this point but if you vote in the majority round one and get no votes then you're definitely up there.

Disclaimer

This is merely an accumulation of information based on what is submitted to a players confessional when it comes to their choosing who to vote for. The chart is speculative and open to interpretation as we cannot chart social play.

[Host Jared]

These statistics are my favorite things to read! You learn so much on the mathematics during a game like this.

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END OF EPISODE TWO STATISTICS



The opening rounds, again, are unsurprising when a tribe votes people out back to back. Until the Foreigners start either losing or throwing stuff we're going to focus a little bit more on #TeamUSA - what's really interesting to see is that one group of people voted out Danny in the first round, THEN in the second boot where Maranda left a new group took over with one exception -- that person is Brady and that's the reason he is leading the pack with a 1.92. Constance being at the bottom of the American's is a perfect representation of her position but since there's been two groups that have been in control it could be anybody.

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END OF EPISODE THREE STATISTICS



This last round has really thrown a wrench into the works. The chart is designed to create a map of who's commanding, trailing and gives an idea of who is next to go. Maranda was in the top tier when she was booted but then Taylor was at the bottom few in the previous episode so it balances itself out. The only constant is Brady who after this last episode stays at the top and despite his claims that he will be the next person voted out he could have the edge on the Americans. With the Foreigners dividing their vote across FIVE people, it again makes estimating the next round difficult to guess.

I do consider this season to be a reflection of Survivor: Cambodia, there doesn't feel as though there is a cemented group and everyone is out for themselves and they may be willing to have temporary deals with each other to better themselves. If the chart is to be believed (pending no evacuation) then Axel/Felix are in danger on Malka with Constance on Kuban.

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END OF EPISODE FOUR STATISTICS



No big change, the evacuations of Yogi and Mark stack their VAP as if they were voted out unanimously. Whitney and Rachel securing Immunity before the evacuations also have them sitting up at the top but yet again, Brady reigns supreme. Bit of a snoozefest thanks to their fuck ups but we were all anticipating Yogi getting knocked out before he was snuffed.

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END OF EPISODE FIVE STATISTICS



With Constance blindsided out of the game at the hands of Will, he skyrockets from the bottom tier right to the top knocking Brady's three round dominance. Paulina also bet an insane amount of HP for her exile at 42 so she's very much in danger of being frozen out and given her current status on Likhi that could very well be the better option than being voted out. Note the bottom two players Daniel and Gannon, they're mirroring each other which I noted in the pre-game iL1ve interview and I remember saying it would be hard to differentiate between them both because they're quite similar in how they play the game and it's not surprising at all to see them paired up and at the bottom.

I can see Likhi getting annihilated at this point, but the amount of wiggle room they have is little to none. Malka and Kuban without the four Likhi duds have really shown promise and if it's a case of Axel, Felix, Will and Paulina leaving systematically I wouldn't have too much of a problem with that.

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END OF EPISODE SIX STATISTICS



Likhi once again showing that Whitney and Rachel were spot on with their tribe picks as the "pee" tribe lose a g a i n and as expected, Paulina was wiped out by the guys in a 3 - 0 vote. Will's exile granted him safety from the next vote which turned into a duel and as you can see on Felix's and Axel's ChA column they show 7 whilst the others left in the game show a 6. With Likhi now down to just two people the possibility of another duel increases ten fold, that being said in such an instance Felix would be the victor over Will as he's got the worst performance in challenges thus far.

Axel's elimination was too soon, he was definitely a contender until the duel but when your tribe is the worst in iSurv1vor history and you could've done more I feel as though his loss was completely justified. Next challenge around the corner, if you're a smart man, bet Likhi to lose BUT things can change in the game that statistics cannot predict, if Malka or Kuban throw (which seems like a long shot) then there might be a way for Likhi to recover.

[Deleted]

END OF EPISODE SEVEN STATISTICS



What a phenomenal way to end the pre-merge than with a fucking ROCK DRAW! Tanya wasn't even on the radar but nonetheless a snap decision can cost you as she becomes the first juror. As the merge hits with eleven people (6 US and 5 RoW) this is truly where the figures come into play because the chart is based on your performance thus far and since people ranked the bottom half of the table have either won consecutive immunities (Daniel) or when exposed to being voted against choose to exile themselves (Gannon) and considering these two gentlemen are well liked they've made it impossible to gage their chances of surviving. Now that the three tribes are no more it really opens up the game in a big way because now everyone is vulnerable.

And for those keeping tabs as a Rock Draw resulted in Tanya being eliminated nobody from Kuban earned a VFB. Nur nur...

The big opener to the merge (leading into episode 8) will be the post-rock draw reaction. The first call at the merge saw Brady and Natalie continue their argument at one another and right now they're at polar opposite ends of the chart. There will be a lot of movement come the next update I feel.

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END OF EPISODE EIGHT STATISTICS



Hunter randomly going against the grain throws the game into a tailspin and with the fear of a second rock draw Will went from top of the list to bottom of the dog pack (nice Brady tie in there, no?) Gannon and Daniel haven't even in the majority, it's day 25! there are a little under two weeks left of game and spending half of it not being with the numbers really doesn't speak well of their games. Rachel claims the top spot with Georgina and Hunter following closely behind and they're starting to emerge as the contenders.

The big question that will run into the rest of the game will be Whitney's power and how it changes the dynamic. Will it give her a Yul/Tony story arc where she's going to be untouchable? Either way, stay clear of Gannon and Daniel... over them.

[Deleted]

END OF EPISODE NINE STATISTICS



There isn't a whole lot to analyse this round, there isn't much movement but Rachel once again dominates the top spot whilst we see Brady slipping further down the rankings into the bottom tier.

[Deleted]

I'll be doing the Jessica TC/Freeze Out in one update.

[Deleted]

END OF EPISODE TEN STATISTICS



Gannon, Felix and Hunter have an additional ChA due to their Exile Tundra.

[Deleted]

Episode 11 stats uploaded tomorrow with a write up on the final six.

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END OF EPISODE ELEVEN STATISTICS



With the end in sight and two episodes left to go we look at the final six, their journey and chances of winning.



Currently sitting in the medium tier, Brady has had a very interesting journey up until this point. Whilst loyal to those he deems necessary to help him in the game he won't pass at the opportunity to cut somebody if it benefits him - though his defence for doing so would be considered somewhat unskilled he is getting by in the game without making too many enemies. For the most part he isn't on the radar despite starting the merge with a less than stellar opening clash with Natalie over the purple rock draw which has seemingly been eclipsed with other stories and targets taking center stage. He's had a decent run at the challenges but is weaker than most and you could attest that to him emerging from his comfort zone and taking risks at the cost of what he believes is right or wrong. A comfortable player, Brady has definitely grown the most in terms of his own limitations but whilst his confidence grows in one area he needs to start picking up in the others, most notably his ability to gain favor from this jury.



Whilst I initially found it difficult to separate Daniel and Gannon due to their similiarities in playing iS at the start, being on opposing sides come the merge made it easier for me to identify with him more than Gannon. In this game Daniel has been the poster child for being voted out but he manages to survive thanks in part to Whitney calling a reset when he was initially voted out. With his rebirth came a shift in the game but it certainly didn't gain any support from the tribe, his challenge record is abysmal at best, he has successfully voted in the majority twice in six Tribal Councils and as of this post Daniel holds the record for most votes against in a single season. Call it luck, call it other people jumping the gun, Daniel is lucky to be in this game and out of everybody remaining he could have the hardest time gaining the votes to win. If you were to call Daniel anything in this game, he's the lightning rod - no plan is complete without targetting him. He could be a contender and these next few challenges could see him go from the goat to the champion.



Since the start of the game Felix has been somewhat antagonistic, a fish out of water in some cases there's absolutely no doubt that Felix is a strong competitor and when he doesn't want to do something, he'll make sure you know about it. Keeping in the same vein of challenges, Felix has beat alumni favorites Axel and Hunter to stay alive when it's came down to the wire, a feat not many others in the series can say they have. His is an underdog story with a twist, people don't trust him but he's a necessary part of the vote and while his track record in that sense isn't phenomenal you can be damn sure he'll be there with an opinion. I'd like to believe that he's grown in the game but that's something you'd have to ask him yourself. It's argued that him leaving the endurance challenge first because he didn't want to do the task was a bit cowardly, but in the grand scheme of this tribe he knows what's up and has a greater understanding of his tribemates without exposing his own hand.



Coming into this game Georgina was always going to be a crowd favorite, a cute New Zealander who's willing to go the extra mile... she's casting gold and she was able to prove her worth throughout. Now this may seem like pandering to try and gain favor but Georgina is playing the second-best game this season by delivering in challenges and every person she votes goes home, her crux however is that her social game has been wavering for sometime now and it's starting to get the better of her. Georgina at her core isn't a good strategist, she's an emotional player and with that investment in the other players she has done one of the cardinal sins in iSurv1vor; cry. Her attachment to stronger strategical players makes her a perfect fit for the people who're voted out to look at Georgina and think that she wasn't so bad, whilst that is a good strategy itself when she is confronted her first reaction is to get red faced and go into hiding. This is something Georgina needs to overcome in order for her to step into a winning spot and as the finals get closer she needs to kick into high gear and start earning the jury votes by making her own choices.



At the start of the season I wrote Rachel off as a pre-juror. It takes me a while to see things clearly but I am so wrong about this lady and if she continues in this capacity, Rachel will be the Sole iSurv1vor and here's why. Firstly, Rachel is the only player left in the game who hasn't been voted against despite her clear connections within the group, secondly, Rachel has been strong in challenges and showed her worth back in the tribal stages when she won Individual Immunity and later became a tribe captain. Her voting record is perfect, she understands the complexities of her tribemates and was able to convince Georgina to take a chance and go out on her own against Gannon by voting him out - there is nobody in this game that could've argued that case and won except for Rachel. Whilst she isn't playing the most extroverted game, she doesn't need too. The common misconception in iSurv1vor is that you have to be a big character to win, that might get you a ticket to another season but the most important tool in your inventory is the social game and Rachel has that by the bucketload.



Whitney to me still feels like such a wildcard, there's something to her game I don't get and I'd love to understand it further. This is the hardest one to analyze as she's been the most inconsistent with being consistently random! She was saved by Brady who risked his game by going to rocks, she went against the wishes of her alliance to reset the game and keep Daniel in... she voted Brady at the merge! I don't get her at all, she's playing this very unprepared game and it just feels as though she's going into each round with no clear goal and that makes her the most dangerous person left. The issue I have with Whitney is that I think we won't see her conclusion be that of a finished one, there's more story to her but it's hard to gage her start, middle and end. She has been on the cusp of greatness then something gets in her way which is usually herself... ugh it's frustrating!! I can't possibly predict how she's going to behave but she is having fun as the rounds go by so maybe this is just a new type of strategy I'm not used to seeing, whatever it is she's got my attention but I don't know why.

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Alright, that's it for the write ups. Ep12 stuff in a few days.

To those that are reading this, thanks it's been fun to analyze the players this season and I can't wait to see what happens in these last few days.

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FINALE STATISTICS [Pre-FTC]



Final update following the jury votes.